The Death of the “Gut Feeling”: Why 2025 is the Year We Finally Let Data Drive the Human Side of HR

Let’s be honest for a moment. How many times have you hired someone because you “just had a good feeling” about them? And how many times has that feeling evaporated three months later when the onboarding honeymoon phase ended?

If you’re nodding your head, you aren’t alone. For decades, the HR profession has balanced on a tightrope between intuition and process. But as we close out 2025, the ground has shifted. The era of the “gut feeling” hire is officially over—and that is the best thing that could happen to the human side of our work.

The Efficiency Paradox

We often talk about digitalization in HR as a way to “speed things up.” And yes, speed is nice. But if you are only using tools to do the same old things faster, you are missing the point.

Research from McKinsey and local insights from Chef.se this year have pointed to a single, undeniable trend: Precision. The labor market in late 2024 and 2025 hasn’t just been about finding bodies to fill seats; it’s been about finding the right skills for a rapidly changing landscape.

We are seeing a move away from “filling a vacancy” to “solving a skills gap.” And you cannot solve a skills gap with a gut feeling. You need data.

The Unsung Hero: Digital Reference Checking

Let’s talk about the one step in recruitment that everyone claims to love but secretly dreads: reference checking.

Historically, this was a compliance exercise. You called a former boss, exchanged pleasantries, and they told you the candidate was “a hard worker.” You checked the box.

In 2025, digital reference checking has transformed from a formality into a strategic weapon. Why? Because it captures data, not just opinions.

• It removes the bias: Standardized questions mean every candidate is measured by the same yardstick, not by how chatty their former boss is.

• It predicts the future: When you aggregate data points on behaviors—like “adaptability” or “grit”—you aren’t just vetting a past; you are predicting a future trajectory.

Key Takeaway: If you are still playing phone tag to ask “Would you hire them again?”, you are leaving critical intelligence on the table.

Connecting the Dots: The Entire Employee Journey

Here is where it gets interesting—and where the real value lies for us as HR leaders.

Data gathered during recruitment (like reference insights) shouldn’t die in an archive folder the moment the contract is signed. That data is the blueprint for the employee’s success.

Imagine an onboarding process where you already know that your new hire is brilliant at strategy but struggles with public speaking (based on honest, digital feedback from three former managers). You don’t find this out six months later after a failed presentation. You know it on day one. You tailor their development plan immediately.

This is what it means to deliver the entire employee journey. It’s not just about hiring; it’s about using that initial data to fuel retention, development, and growth.

The Human Element

There is a fear that more data means less humanity. I would argue the opposite.

When you automate the administrative heavy lifting—the scheduling, the chasing, the form-filling—you buy back the only resource you can’t manufacture: Time.

Time to have a real coffee with a struggling manager. Time to design a mentorship program. Time to actually listen to your people.

As we head into 2026, let’s make a pact. Let’s stop apologizing for using data. Let’s embrace it so we can get back to doing what we actually signed up for: building great teams, not just filling empty chairs.

3 Quick Wins for HR Managers This Week:

1. Audit your “Gut”: Look at your last 5 bad hires. Was the data there to warn you, or did you ignore it?

2. Digitalize the “Boring” Stuff: If you are still doing manual reference checks, look for a tool that integrates with your ATS. The ROI on time saved is immediate.

3. Bridge the Gap: Set a meeting with your L&D (Learning & Development) team. Ask them: “What data from the recruitment process would help you onboard people better?”